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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to ATL 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model