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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 33

What Actually Happened

(14:45) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 11-A.Humphries [97-G.Jarrett].

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model