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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 40 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model