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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 14 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.09 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model