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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 9-J.Ryan punt is BLOCKED by 55-J.Hughes, Center-48-N.Frese, ball out of bounds at SEA 3.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 26, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model