Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Buffalo Bills 17

(7:27) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to BUF 21, Center-48-N.Frese. 22-R.Bush to BUF 21 for no gain (27-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.35 EP
76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model