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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Buffalo Bills 25

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model