4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CAR 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on CAR-95-C.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.28 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model