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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 89

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to LA 41, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Austin to LA 46 for 5 yards (22-M.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.70 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 89, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.87 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -2.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP