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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:39) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback. Penalty on CAR-59-L.Kuechly, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on LA-23-B.Cunningham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.99 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model