4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to CAR 39 for -1 yards (56-A.Klein; 59-L.Kuechly).

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model