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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 4-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.09 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model