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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 8-A.Lee punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.50 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model