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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to LA 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model