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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 20

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.12 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model