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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 8-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LA 1, impetus ends at LA 1, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Austin to LA 3 for 2 yards (10-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -3.27 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model