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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.69 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP