Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(14:54) 8-A.Lee punts 58 yards to LA 4, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Austin to LA 18 for 14 yards (57-J.Cash).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model