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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to DET 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.38 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model