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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 76

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(12:56) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIN 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at MIN 35 for 8 yards (51-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.42 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model