Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Detroit Lions 10

(10:42) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to DET 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model