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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 73

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to MIN 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model