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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 34

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(12:38) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.53 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP