Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 72

Detroit Lions 13 – Minnesota Vikings 9

(4:26) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIN 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 14-S.Diggs to MIN 21 for 2 yards (29-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.29 EP
64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model