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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(13:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +3.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.18 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP