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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.73 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP