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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 10-J.Schum punts 61 yards to IND 14, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at IND 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model