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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to GB 21, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model