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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 10-J.Schum punts 31 yards to IND 29, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model