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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 10-J.Schum punts 54 yards to IND 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 23 for 3 yards (47-J.Ryan). PENALTY on IND-53-E.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP