Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(12:31) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to JAX 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 19 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.19 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model