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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to KC 10, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-T.Hill to KC 20 for 10 yards (16-D.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.97 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP