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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.91 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP