Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to KC 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-T.Hill to JAX 40 for 36 yards (3-B.Nortman). PENALTY on JAX-46-C.Tinker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.51 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model