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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 35-C.West up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (37-J.Cyprien).

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.94 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model