Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 85

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(6:46) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to JAX 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 39 for 8 yards (51-F.Zombo).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model