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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 81-B.Walters (20-S.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.09 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model