Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to JAX 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 23 for 8 yards (57-D.Alexander). FUMBLES (57-D.Alexander), RECOVERED by KC-80-J.O'Shaughnessy at JAX 23. 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to JAX 23 for no gain (59-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.99 EP
54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model