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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 2-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP