4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-J.Marshall MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 11. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 11 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model