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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(11:42) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to NYJ 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 27 for 10 yards (45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.72 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model