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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 64

New York Jets 13 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.82 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP