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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model