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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 20 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(6:01) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 10, and recovers at MIA 17. 4-M.Darr to MIA 18 for 1 yard (26-C.Spiller). FUMBLES (26-C.Spiller), recovered by MIA-42-S.Paysinger at MIA 18. 42-S.Paysinger to MIA 18 for no gain (49-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.50 EP