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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 5

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 5, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP