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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model