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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 85

New York Giants 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to PHI 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-94-M.Herzlich.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.72 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP