Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 28

(6:06) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 17-D.Harris to NYG 40 for 10 yards (42-C.Maragos, 52-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.39 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model