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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 45

New York Giants 28 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 9-B.Wing punts 33 yards to PHI 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.50 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model