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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – New York Giants 28

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.64 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 8, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP